War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".