Fans of Newcastle United are increasingly regarding their manager's outfit as an inconsistent companion. On their day, they transform into the very entertainers, producing high-octane performances. But, in other matches, previously reliable individuals like their midfield linchpin and others completely go missing.
Adding to these problems is a second-half game management riddled with a worrying element of chaos. Before their holiday fixture to Manchester United, the facts reveal a sobering picture: they have let slip thirteen precious Premier League points from winning positions this season and are without a shutout in 10 straight games across all competitions. Earning victory at their famous stadium would represent only their second domestic triumph on the travel this year.
On the flip side, defeat has only come once in their previous six Premier League encounters, and despite occupying a seemingly lowly 11th spot, they remain a only six marks behind the highly-prized top four. Factor in an looming two-legged League Cup semi-final against the reigning champions and a decent opportunity of progressing to the Champions League knockout phase, and it becomes simpler to understand the gaffer's cautious optimism.
“Our issues aren't limited to problems,” remarked the club's manager. “You can see assets as well. I am very much optimistic currently. I realize others may hold a divergent opinion, but in my view we are getting better.”
The question is: will this group recreate – or even surpass – the achievements of last season's cup glory and fifth-place finish? Balancing a packed calendar makes this difficult.
The resulting heavy-leggedness may explain the inability to sustain a brilliant first-half performance versus Chelsea, ultimately surrendering a 2-0 lead to tie the game. Likewise, it is possibly the culprit for a poor display in a painful loss to arch-rivals the Black Cats, where the side seemed lethargic just a short time after a demanding European excursion.
While coaching is undoubtedly Howe's strength, the constant grind of two games a week football has radically cut into essential training sessions. This slows the team's stylistic adjustment to playing with new striker Nick Woltemade up front, instead of the departed their former star. Although hugely skilled, Woltemade has not shown the equivalent blistering counter-attacking pace or relentless defensive work rate.
In fact, the side's signature pressing game has sporadically failed. Fitness issues to crucial cog Joelinton have exacerbated matters, while high-profile arrivals Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey have had difficulties adapting since their big-money transfers.
If a move to a back three could arguably help the cause, a worsening backline injury crisis makes that problematic. Key defenders will be absent for the next key matches, challenging the team's resilience.
When playing at their ferocious best, they seem almost unstoppable. The catch is maintaining that level for the entire 90 minutes. The typical plan B of dropping deep into a passive counter-attacking formation has at times proven self-destructive.
“The Chelsea match descended into anarchic at two-all,” admitted the coach. “But the intention was going for the victory. We always try to win.”
What appears called for is a balanced approach – with superior ball retention, a midfield capable of controlling the tempo, and a sensible willingness to occasionally accept a point. However, a ambition to compete on all competitions is testing finite squad numbers to their limit.
It may seem unthinkable to some, but a different strategy in the cup competitions in the initial stages could have eased the present schedule congestion. Amid critical Champions League and Premier League games on the agenda, the imperative to carefully prioritize is becoming ever more obvious.
The manager acknowledged the size of the task remaining. “When you're at a club of this size, the pressures are immense. Each game is critical. There is progress to be made in the league. We're in the League Cup last four, we want to progress in the Europe and perform in the FA Cup.
“The direction is in the correct path, but we have a great deal of work to do to transform into the consistently winning team we want to be. Our capacity to string together sequences of victories has deserted us so far.
“The challenge is to hit those levels we are aware we're capable of. My feeling is that the confidence to do that is returning. But now we have to demonstrate it. It ain't all bad right now, but the coming period will determine a great deal.”
Eleanor Hayes is a data scientist and business analyst with over a decade of experience in transforming raw data into actionable insights.